Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.